This article is about the pain index for March Madness. The Index will be created in a couple days and you can follow it on my Twitter account @IAMCRYPTO_LIFE or on,

The “march madness 2022” is a tournament that takes place every year in the United States. It’s usually held in March, and has been around since 1939. The tournament has 64 teams from all over the country, with one team from each region.

The 66 fan base support organization has resurfaced.

The Duke Blue Devils and Villanova Wildcats are the most recent additions to the March Madness list, which will eventually include every team but one, the group of NCAA tournament teams destined to cap otherwise successful seasons with a defeat. The Kansas Jayhawks or the North Carolina Tar Heels will be added to this list on Monday night, and it will not be a pleasant experience.

Every team’s withdrawal from the tournament has its own unique tale, but some are unquestionably more difficult to accept than others, so we attempted to measure the sadness. The following are the primary elements we took into account while calculating the March Madness pain:

  • Have you ever seen your team waste a game that seemed to be won? The right amount of devastation was determined using ESPN’s victory probability statistics.

  • Is it possible that your team squandered a wonderful chance against a perceived inferior foe?

  • Did your team fall up short in their attempt to achieve history? We were looking for our first NCAA victory, Sweet 16 appearance, and Final Four appearance in a long time.

  • Was it the end of an era, or the beginning of a new one? Was there a group of seniors on your squad who were expected to leave? Is your coach on the move or about to retire?

We took those things into account and piled the L’s. If you’re a fan of one of the teams on this list, keep reading and take solace in the fact that suffering loves company.


Texas Southern Tigers (66) (No. 16 seed, Midwest)

They lost because they were the number one seed. In the first round, Kansas beat the Tigers 83-56.

5.0 percent of the time, you’ll win (Texas Southern 2, Kansas 0 at 17:58 mark of first half)

How much it hurt: Texas Southern continued its mastery of the First Four, taking down Texas A&M-Corpus Christi in Dayton to advance to the round of 64 for a second straight year. Once there, the Tigers struggled to keep pace with the Jayhawks as expected, getting caught on the business end of a 28-7 run to close the first half and pretty much end the dream. TSU trailed by 28 at the break, and it was academic from there for eventual national championship participant Kansas against the SWAC champs.


Montana State Bobcats (65). (No. 14 seed, West)

They lost because they were seeded third. In the first round, Texas Tech beat the Bobcats 97-62.

Peak chance of winning: 5.4 percent (Montana State 2, Texas Tech 0, 19:05 mark of first half)

How much it hurt: The Bobcats won the Big Sky regular-season championship and then cruised through the conference tournament to earn a spot in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1996, but reality hit Danny Sprinkle’s team in San Diego immediately. Texas Tech scored 66.7 percent from the field and led by 27 points at halftime, capping an otherwise successful season for MSU. “Obviously, we didn’t play our best today,” Sprinkle said, “and probably 100 percent of it has to do with Texas Tech.” “It seemed like they were keeping an eye on me.”


Spartans of Norfolk State University (64). (No. 16 seed, East)

The Spartans were upset 85-49 by No. 1 seed Baylor in the first round.

Peak chance of winning: 3.8 percent (Baylor 5, Norfolk State 3, 17:18 mark of first half)

How much it hurt: In a 1 vs. 16 showdown, the MEAC champion Spartans didn’t last long for the second consecutive tournament. With 12:45 left in the first half, Baylor’s Matthew Mayer hit a 3-pointer to put the Bears ahead 21-10, and NSU would never go within single digits. “I think we let the situation get away from us a little bit at times,” Spartans coach Robert Jones said after seeing Baylor shoot 31 of 54 (57.4%) from the field.


Longwood Lancers (63). (No. 14 seed, South)

They lost because they were seeded third. In the opening round, Tennessee beat the Lancers 88-56.

Peak chance of winning: 6.6 percent (Tennessee 16, Longwood 15, 11:34 mark of first half)

The Lancers of Farmville, Virginia, were in the NCAA tournament for the first time in their Division I existence, and they held their heads above water for just 10 minutes until the Volunteers took over. Tennessee embarked on a 34-12 surge to take a 25-point advantage into halftime, basically putting the Big South champions out of the game.


Wright State Raiders (62nd) (No. 16 seed, South)

They lost because they were the number one seed. In the first round, Arizona beat the Raiders 87-70.

Peak chance of winning: 6.4 percent (Arizona 52, Wright State 44, 14:44 mark of second half)

How much it hurt: The Raiders created history by defeating Bryant and earning the school’s first NCAA win, and they did it only a few miles from their Dayton campus. In the round of 64, the challenge became exponentially more difficult against top-seeded U of A, however Wright State stayed within striking distance long into the second half before succumbing.


Bryant Bulldogs, No. 61 (No. 16 seed, South)

They lost because they were seeded 16th. In the First Four, Wright State beat Georgia 93-82.

Peak chance of winning: 59.0 percent (at the 17:24 minute of the first half, Bryant 5, Wright State 0)

How much it hurt: The Bulldogs won the NEC title to earn the school’s first NCAA tournament bid, and the school would have been pleased with how the positive of a First Four win could have countered the unwanted national attention garnered by some ugly fan behavior in the NEC title game against Wagner. But it wasn’t to be, as Jared Grasso’s team was caught in the middle of a 15-4 second-half surge that converted a 62-57 game into a 77-61 hole that Bryant couldn’t overcome. Peter Kiss, Division I’s top scorer, got 28 points, but his performance was overshadowed by Wright State’s Tanner Holden (37 points).


Georgia State Panthers (60) (No. 16 seed, West)

They lost because they were the number one seed. In the first round, Gonzaga beat the Panthers 93-72.

24.0 percent of the time, you’ll win (Georgia State 54, Gonzaga 52 at 13:10 mark of second half)

How much it hurt: Georgia State gave us the closest thing to a 16 over a 1 in the 2022 tournament, as the Sun Belt champions led the overall No. 1 seed for most of the second half before the game was called off. Gonzaga outscored Rob Lanier’s team 41-18 in the last 13 minutes, banking on their physical size advantage to come away with a convincing victory, at least according to the final score. It was the end of an era for GSU, as Lanier went on to become the head coach of SMU after his tenure with the Panthers.

“I feel bad for these people because the score doesn’t reflect how the game was really played,” Lanier remarked. “I’m incredibly proud of these guys, not only for tonight’s effort, but for all they’ve done for our program.”


Titans of CSU Fullerton, 59. (No. 15 seed, West)

The Titans were upset 78-61 by No. 2 seed Duke in the first round.

5.5 percent of the time, you’ll win (Duke 33, CSU Fullerton 27, 2:16 mark of first half)

How much pain did it cause: The Big West champions were in town following a thrilling victory over Long Beach State in the conference championship, and it wasn’t out of the question that Dedrique Taylor’s 21-win squad might add to a Duke first-round Giant Killer list that includes Lehigh and Mercer. The Blue Devils, on the other hand, jumped off to a 17-4 lead and never looked back, with all five starters scoring in double digits while the Titans battled to keep up offensively. “Even during timeouts, I’d tell the players, ‘The shots we’re getting are excellent shots,’” Taylor said. “They simply didn’t seem to be falling. Duke’s height, quickness, and strength — those shots looked a bit different tonight than they did last Saturday, in my opinion.”


Yale Bulldogs (58) (No. 14 seed, East)

How they lost: In the first round, No. 3 seed Purdue upset the Bulldogs 78-56.

Win probability at its highest: 7.1 percent (Yale 16, Purdue 15, 13:07 mark of first half)

How much it hurt: Yale was an intriguing 14-seed for bracket fillers, many of whom were well aware that the Bulldogs had upset Baylor back in the 2016 tournament and threw a scare into LSU last time they were here in 2019. But this was not an ideal matchup for James Jones’ 2021-22 group, which was bothered by the Boilermakers’ size up front and had no real answer for probable lottery pick Jaden Ivey (22 points) in the backcourt. That said, Jones & Co. had to be a bit bemused to see 15-seed Saint Peter’s pull off the Goliath-slaying feat against Purdue a week later.


Delaware Blue Hens (57) (No. 15 seed, South)

The Blue Hens were upset 80-60 by No. 2 seed Villanova in the first round.

18.3% of the time, you’ll win (Delaware 15, Villanova 8, 11:04 mark of first half)

How much pain did it cause: Delaware reached the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2014 with a little of house money after defeating three consecutive higher seeds to win the CAA tournament as a 5-seed. However, the loss against neighboring Villanova, the school’s CAA football rival, the previous home of Blue Hens player Dylan Painter, and the alma mater of UD coach and Philly-area native Martin Ingelsby’s father, Tom, was disappointing. Also, for almost a half, it seemed like this might be a contest, until the Wildcats went on an 8-0 run to take a 10-point advantage into halftime and put an end to any possible upset prospects. “We gave them a little fright,” Ingelsby added. “I believe they were able to expand that advantage at the conclusion of the first half and the beginning of the second half, and we were fighting uphill from there.”


The Gamecocks of Jacksonville State University are ranked 56th in the nation (No. 15 seed, Midwest)

They lost because they were seeded second. In the first round, Auburn beat the Gamecocks 80-61.

Peak chance of winning: 20.6 percent (At 6:59 in the first half, Jacksonville State leads Auburn 18, 21-18.)

How much pain did it cause: The ASUN regular-season champion Gamecocks were in town under unusual circumstances: they were beaten in the conference tournament quarterfinals but received an automatic invitation since ASUN tournament champion Bellarmine was still transitioning to Division I. So there was some reason for JSU to prove its worth on the field, and the possibility to dethrone an in-state juggernaut like Auburn gave even more motivation. But a 17-3 Tigers surge to cap a tense first half ultimately put the Gamecocks out, and their 40 NCAA tournament minutes will be remembered for what may have been the tournament’s best dunk from an eventual NBA lottery pick:


Richmond Spiders (#55) (No. 12 seed, Midwest)

The Spiders were upset 79-51 in the second round by No. 4 seed Providence.

Peak chance of winning: 39.6% (Richmond 0, Providence 0, 19:38 mark of first half)

How much it hurt: Richmond had a fantastic March by any measure, winning four games in four days in the A-10 tournament (including upsets of rival VCU, Dayton, and Davidson) to qualify for the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2011, then shocking Big Ten tourney champion Iowa in one of the first round’s bracket-shaking upsets. For Chris Mooney’s team, none of the above was more remarkable than the way it finished, with UR hitting 1-of-22 from 3-point range in a game that was never in single digits for the last 33 minutes. Richmond point player Jacob Gilyard remarked of Providence, “At the end of the day, they played better basketball than us.” “They fired a few rounds. We just weren’t up to the task.”


UAB Blazers (54). (No. 12 seed, South)

They lost because they were seeded fifth. In the first round, Houston beat the Blazers 82-68.

13.6 percent is the highest victory probability (Houston 8, UAB 7, 16:01 mark of first half)

How much it hurt: A 12-over-5 upset by UAB over Houston would not have been considered shocking. The Blazers were rated among the best mid-majors in the nation all year, had considerable basketball tournament experience (10 NCAA victories overall), were captained by Andy Kennedy, a March Madness veteran, and had Jordan “Jelly” Walker, one of the tournament’s most explosive players. The Cougars shot it too well (53.3 percent from 2, 47.6 percent from three), and Walker (1-of-10 from three) never seemed at ease against Houston’s traditionally strong defense. Houston, according to Kennedy, “doesn’t give you anything for free.” “I knew they were going to attempt to level the playing field and minimize Jelly’s open looks, and they succeeded admirably.”


53. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders (No. 16 seed, Midwest)

They lost because they were seeded 16th. In the first round, Texas Southern beat the Islanders 76-67.

Peak win probability: 70.3% (Texas A&M-CC 55, Texas Southern 51, 8:37 mark of second half)

How much it hurt: The Islanders had the 2022 NCAA tournament’s shortest ride, ousted in the First Four a little more than 48 hours after seeing their name announced on Sunday night’s Selection Show. And there was no shame for Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, which was in the field for the first time since 2007 after winning the Southland as a 4-seed, with a first-year head coach (Steve Lutz) and a roster that had been almost completely overhauled in the offseason. That said, the program’s first NCAA tournament win was right there for the Islanders, who shot 1-for-11 from the field over the final six minutes as Texas Southern assumed control when it mattered.


LSU Tigers (52nd) (No. 6 seed, Midwest)

The Tigers were upset 59-54 by No. 11 seed Iowa State in the first round.

74.0 percent of the time, you’ll win (LSU 5, Iowa State 4, 17:22 mark of first half)

How much it hurt: For the second time in four years, LSU’s NCAA tournament conditions were strange, as the school ultimately fired scandal-plagued coach Will Wade on the day of the 2022 tournament and was headed by an interim coach. It was difficult to predict whether a talented but uneven Tigers squad would coalesce under interim coach Kevin Nickelberry or head for the exits. The end outcome was somewhere in the middle. LSU fell down 24-12 in the first half but never gave up, tied the game at 31-31 in the second half and having a 51-50 lead going into the final two minutes. Tyrese Hunter of the Cyclones nailed two game-winning three-pointers in the last minutes, and the Tigers missed a pair of important free throws, giving the victory to ISU.

Nickelberry noted later, “We were in the game to the finish.” “I’ve been saying all week that it’s just basketball,” he added, “but the distractions were many, and these players still pushed through them, went out, and gave LSU a chance to win today.”


Seton Hall Pirates (#51) (No. 8 seed, South)

TCU beat the Pirates 69-42 in the first round as the No. 9 seed.

55.4 percent of the time, you’ll win (Seton Hall 4, TCU 2, 15:41 mark of first half)

How much it hurt: The Pirates’ final game under Kevin Willard was far from a work of art, as they shot horribly in all three phases (28.8% from 2, 28.6% from 3, 54.5 percent from the line), were outmuscled on the boards (39-26), and committed 16 turnovers in a game where the outcome was never really in doubt in the second half. Seton Hall supporters watched as respected alumni and soon-to-be Pirates coach Shaheen Holloway led Saint Peter’s on the deepest run for a New Jersey team in 31 years only two days after Maryland made it official and selected Willard as its new head coach, putting an end to months of uncertainty.


Alabama Crimson Tide (#50) (No. 6 seed, West)

In the first round, No. 11 seed Notre Dame upset the Crimson Tide 78-64.

73.4 percent of the time, you’ll win (Alabama 25, Notre Dame 21, 6:40 mark of first half)

How much pain did it cause: It was a fitting finale for an Alabama squad that looked to be lacking something throughout 2021-22, a talented bunch that couldn’t reach the level of its SEC title unit from the previous season, and a club that few bracket fillers expected to go far. And it didn’t, giving up a career-high 29 points on 10-of-13 shooting to Notre Dame’s Cormac Ryan on a night that saw point guard Jahvon Quinerly leave early with a “severe” knee injury. After the game, Bama guard Keon Ellis (16 points) stated, “He’s a key aspect of what we do.” “The loss of him had a significant effect on us.”


Wyoming Cowboys (49). (No. 12 seed, East)

How they lost: They were seeded 12th. In the First Four, Indiana beat the Cowboys 66-58.

43.6 percent of the time, you’ll win (Wyoming 21, Indiana 17, 3:41 mark of first half)

How much it hurt: Wyoming was the last at-large selection to the field, and it looked determined to repay the NCAA selection committee’s choice with the program’s first tournament victory in 20 years. The Cowboys, on the other hand, unknowingly set off a Mountain West nightmare, as the conference went 0-4 in the tournament and was eliminated by Thursday night. Wyoming suffered 19 turnovers, including 10 by standout point guard Hunter Maldonado (21 points), and couldn’t stop Trayce Jackson-Davis (29 points on 10-of-16 shooting). Wyoming coach Jeff Linder bemoaned later, “You know, we gave that team 19 empty possessions when I felt for the most part we were getting the shots we needed to get.”


The Hokies of Virginia Tech are ranked 48th in the country (No. 11 seed, East)

How they lost: They were seeded No. 6 in the tournament. In the first round, Texas beat Virginia Tech 81-73.

66.2 percent of the time, you’ll win. (At the 15:08 mark of the first half, Virginia Tech leads Texas 6-0.)

How much it hurt: The Hokies came into the tournament as one of the hottest teams in the field, having gone 13-2 in their previous 15 games, including an ACC tournament triumph highlighted by decisive victories against teams that would go on to the Final Four in North Carolina (72-59) and Duke (72-59). (82-67). Even if the seed lines imply it was predicted, Tech’s one-and-done performance was disappointing in that environment. The Hokies held their own against the Longhorns for a half, but were unable to stop a Texas squad that went 10-of-19 from three-point range and had all five starters score in double digits.


Saint Mary’s Gaels (no. 47) (No. 5 seed, East)

The Gaels were upset 72-56 by No. 4 seed UCLA in the second round.

At the 10:16 point of the first half, Saint Mary’s had a 58.0 percent chance of winning.

How much it hurt: The Gaels had the top seed in school history, which they justified by crushing Indiana (82-53) in Round 1, but they fell short of reaching the second weekend for the first time since 2010. Saint Mary’s led by seven points in the first half until UCLA went on a 17-2 run to take control of the game. Randy Bennett’s team got as close as 38-37 on an Alex Ducas 3-pointer early in the second half, but the Gaels couldn’t keep up on the offensive end and struggled to contain UCLA’s scorers. “”I wish we had played better,” Bennett remarked, “and I’m sure UCLA had a hand in it.” It wasn’t one of our more successful games.”


Iowa State Cyclones (46). (No. 11 seed, Midwest)

How they lost: They were seeded 10th. In the Sweet 16, Miami beat the Cyclones 70-56.

55.1 percent of the time, you’ll win (Iowa State 8, Miami 7, 15:33 mark of first half)

How much pain did it cause: A team that came back from a 2-22 season to not only escape the Big 12 gantlet but also make it to the second weekend of the NCAA tournament was a remarkable tale, and there was little shame in the way it ended for a Cyclones club that had likely achieved its peak. Nonetheless, with a 10-seed between ISU and the Elite Eight, Cyclones fans had cause to believe that their team could win at least one more game. However, 18 turnovers and bad shooting (4-of-22 from 3) dashed those aspirations, and Miami advanced to the regional final to play Kansas. Forward George Conditt IV said, “It was a remarkable run.”


The Broncos of Boise State are ranked 45th in the country (No. 8 seed, West)

The Broncos were upset 64-53 by No. 9 seed Memphis in the first round.

40.3 percent of the time, you’ll win. (11:26 of the first half, Boise State 12, Memphis 12)

How much pain did it cause: Despite the fact that many people thought the Mountain West regular-season and tournament champions were underseeded, the seed lines still showed the Broncos had a good chance of winning what would have been the program’s first NCAA tournament game. However, BSU had the misfortune of meeting an ultratalented Memphis team that had gone 12-2 in its previous 14 games, and the skill difference was evident as the Tigers went on a 16-2 run to take a 19-point lead into halftime. In the second half, Leon Rice’s squad fought back, pulling within 56-51 on a Naje Smith layup at the 1:26 mark, but the mountain proved too high to climb.

Rice stated, “They simply went down swinging.” “They didn’t give in to anyone’s demands. They will be remembered for a long time, and the things they accomplished contributed to the program’s continued growth.”


New Mexico State Aggies (44). (No. 12 seed, West)

The Aggies were upset 53-48 in the second round by No. 4 seed Arkansas.

50.1 percent of the time, you’ll win (New Mexico State 33, Arkansas 32, 8:06 mark of second half)

How much pain did it cause: The WAC champions beat UConn in Round 1 for the school’s first NCAA tournament victory since 1993 (and, since that was vacated, its first NCAA-recognized victory since 1970), and there was a glimmer in the second half that the Aggies might join the ranks of the Sweet 16’s double-digit seeds. The Aggies couldn’t make enough shots in what turned out to be the final game of the Chris Jans era in Las Cruces, thanks to a 20-6 run that spanned the end of the first and beginning of the second halves, combined with some absolutely terrible shooting from the Razorbacks (27.5 percent from 2, 18.8 percent), made this a game — mostly unwatchable — until the late stages. Jans remarked later, “We believed this squad had a chance to make one of those spectacular runs, but it simply didn’t happen.”


Vermont Catamounts (#43) (No. 13 seed, West)

The Catamounts were upset 75-71 by No. 4 seed Arkansas in the first round.

Peak chance of winning: 58.3 percent (At the 15:36 point of the second half, Vermont 39, Arkansas 36)

How much pain did it cause: The Catamounts came into the tournament having won 22 of their previous 23, had annihilated the competition on way to an America East championship, and were a popular first-round upset pick. John Becker’s squad came close to living up to the hype, leading late in the second half before succumbing. For a club that shot 75.6 percent from the line throughout the conference part of the season, a 7-of-13 performance was an unanticipated concern. Becker stated, “We wish we could have shot free throws better.” “We wish we had rebounded a little better at the end, but these guys gave it their all against a very, really talented Arkansas team.”


Loyola Chicago Ramblers (42nd) (No. 10 seed, South)

They lost because they were seeded seventh. In the first round, Ohio State beat the Ramblers 54-41.

55.0 percent of the time, you’ll win (Loyola Chicago 5, Ohio State 2, 15:58 mark of first half)

How much pain did it cause: A school coming off a Final Four visit and a trip to the Sweet 16 couldn’t be satisfied with a first-round departure, and a first-round game against a hot-and-cold Ohio State squad looked to give a decent chance for the Ramblers to progress. However, Loyola shot badly (26.8% from 2, 28.6% from 3, and 30% from the free throw line) and was held at arm’s length by the Buckeyes throughout, depriving coach Drew Valentine his first tournament victory and ending the career of fifth-year standout Lucas Williamson (4 points on 1-of-10 shooting). “I mean, I’m disappointed in myself,” Williamson expressed his disappointment. “I don’t think I performed up to the expectations I set for myself.”


San Francisco Dons (#41) (No. 10 seed, East)

The Dons were upset 92-87 (OT) by No. 7 seed Murray State in the first round.

64.8 percent of the time, you’ll win (San Francisco 48, Murray State 45, 13:50 mark of second half)

It was a historic season for the Dons, who were in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1998 and had a good chance of winning a game for the first time since 1979. USF was right there with Murray State, battling back from a nine-point hole as the clock ticked down to four minutes to force OT on a game-tying three by fifth-year standout Jamaree Bouyea. Inside the two-minute mark of overtime, another Bouyea 3 put the Dons up 84-83, and that’s when things started to fall apart. Todd Golden’s team was denied a trip to the second round, where they would have faced 15-seed Saint Peter’s, thanks to empty trips and improved free throw shooting by the Racers. It was Golden’s last game on the USF bench, despite the fact that he was hired by Florida a day after the defeat to Murray State. For the Dons, it was a squandered chance and the end of an era.


Indiana Hoosiers (#40) (No. 12 seed, East)

The Hoosiers were upset 82-53 by No. 5 seed Saint Mary’s in the first round.

58.1 percent chance of winning (Indiana 18, Saint Mary’s 14 at 9:50 in the first half)

How much pain did it cause: Indiana, a renowned institution that does not aspire to first-round NCAA tournament exits, did not have a happy ending. However, it was difficult for a rational person to look at Indiana’s season and not be encouraged. After suffering through the misguided Archie Miller era, Indiana fans got to see first-year head coach Mike Woodson lead the Hoosiers to their first tournament appearance since 2016, courtesy to inspired wins over Michigan and Illinois in the Big Ten tournament. The First Four win over Wyoming kept the good times rolling before they unraveled in Portland against the Gaels, in what was Indiana’s fifth game in seven days and turned out to be its most decisive tournament loss in program history. Still, it was a solid run that portends greater things to come, and Indiana did provide us one of the greatest cheerleading moments of all time:


Colorado State Rams (#39) (No. 6 seed, South)

How they lost: They were seeded 11th. In the first round, Michigan beat the Rams 75-63.

83.6 percent of the time, you’ll win. (At the 4:48 mark of the first half, Colorado State leads Michigan 13, 28-13.)

How much it hurt: A CSU fan might have been excused for looking forward in the bracket as the clock crept down to halftime versus Michigan. The Rams seemed to be in perfect control against a Wolverines team that had underachieved all season, hitting eight first-half three-pointers and playing like the seasoned, cohesive unit they had been for the most of the season. After then, there was the second half. The Wolverines never trailed again as a 15-5 Michigan rally transformed a 44-38 Colorado State advantage into a 53-49 deficit. Niko Medved’s team stopped making 3-pointers in the second half, shooting 4-of-15 from outside the arc in the last 20 minutes. For a squad that had earned the greatest seed in Colorado State history, it was a difficult way to go out.

Medved stated, “I believed the game was in the balance.” “We had our opportunities. Today, Michigan was definitely the superior team, especially in the second half.”


The South Dakota State Jackrabbits are ranked 38th in the country (No. 13 seed, Midwest)

The Jackrabbits were upset 66-57 by No. 4 seed Providence in the first round.

51.9 percent of the time, you’ll win (South Dakota State 11, Providence 7, 15:23 mark of first half)

How much it hurt: It’s not often that a 13-seed is favored over a 4-seed, but didn’t it seem like the whole world was rooting for South Dakota State (30-4 and on a 21-game winning run entering the tournament) to win? Providence coach Ed Cooley expressed his feelings on the eve of the tournament, saying: “Nobody has given us a chance against South Dakota State in the United States. Not even a single person.” Okay, it wasn’t entirely accurate, but the Jackrabbits came up short in a game that seemed like a coin flip on some levels. SDSU fell down 43-29 in the second half before rallying to within 60-57 on a Baylor Scheierman basket with under a minute remaining. However, an untimely foul by Douglas Wilson on a Jared Bynum 3-point attempt essentially destroyed a number of pro-Jackrabbit brackets (Bynum would hit all three free throws).


The Golden Eagles of Marquette are ranked 37th (No. 9 seed, East)

The Golden Eagles were crushed 95-63 by No. 8 seed North Carolina in the first round.

Peak chance of winning: 43.0 percent (At 17:12 of the first half, Marquette 6, North Carolina 5)

Marquette wasn’t supposed to be here; the Golden Eagles were selected ninth out of 11 teams in the preseason Big East poll, therefore the Golden Eagles had already won before they arrived to Dickie’s Arena in Fort Worth, Texas, to face the Tar Heels. On the other hand, Marquette supporters who recalled the program’s nine NCAA tournament victories from 2008 to 2013 were eager to relive that sensation, so the most lopsided defeat in an 8 vs. 9 game since the NCAA tournament bracket expanded in 1985 did not quite strike the sweet spot. Caleb Love and Brady Manek combined for 11 three-pointers, while Marquette was outrebounded 52-37 on the boards. North Carolina would go on to become the third Marquette opponent to reach the Final Four in the Golden Eagles’ last four NCAA tournament appearances.

“It wasn’t our day,” said Shaka Smart, a first-year coach. “On the defensive end, we didn’t play with the amount of aggression we needed to take away the things North Carolina desired.”


The Buckeyes of Ohio State are ranked 36th in the country (No. 7 seed, South)

They lost because they were seeded second. In the second round, Villanova beat Ohio State 71-61.

31.9 percent of the time, you’ll win (Villanova 60, Ohio State 58, 5:41 mark of second half)

How much it hurt: After last year’s heartbreaking first-round defeat to Oral Roberts, it had to feel good for OSU to exorcise the devil with a victory against Loyola Chicago in the first round. But the joy was short-lived for a team that fell short of advancing Ohio State to the second weekend for the first time since 2013, a team that had skill and a couple of great victories (Duke, at Illinois), but wasn’t consistent enough when it counted. OSU just stopped scoring after drawing within striking distance of Villanova around the five-minute mark, shooting 1-of-7 from the field, 1-of-3 from the free throw line, and committing three turnovers in overtime. All of this acts as a warm-up for head coach Chris Holtmann’s upcoming summer and 2022-23 season.

“We’ve got to keep coming here, we’ve got to keep expanding,” Holtmann remarked afterwards. “If you keep coming here, if you come often enough, if you come regularly, it will happen.”


Texas Longhorns (#35) (No. 6 seed, East)

How they lost: In the second round, No. 3 seed Purdue upset the Longhorns 81-71.

53.1 percent of the time, you’ll win (Texas 14, Purdue 8, 15:07 mark of first half)

How much it hurt: After its hire of Chris Beard and unprecedented transfer portal success this past offseason, Texas entered 2021-22 with realistic expectations of reaching New Orleans and the Final Four. And though the season had its highs — an 81-73 first-round win over Virginia Tech that gave the program its first NCAA tournament win since 2014 was one of them — the Longhorns never quite caught fire. The loss to Purdue was part of a concluding stretch of basketball that saw Beard & Co. go 4-6 in their final 10 games. In their final chapter, the Longhorns sent the Boilermakers to the line 46 times to Texas’ 12 trips to the charity stripe, denying Texas a chance to face 15-seed Saint Peter’s — which would stun Purdue in the next round.

Afterward, Beard stated, “We just needed to make a few more plays down the stretch.” “I’m not sure how I’ll remember this game. Time will tell. Let’s wait and watch how Purdue responds.”


The Fighting Illini of Illinois are ranked number 34 in the country (No. 4 seed, South)

They lost because they were seeded fifth. In the second round, Houston beat the Fighting Illini 68-53.

43.4 percent of the time, you’ll win (Illinois 40, Houston 40, 11:26 mark of second half)

How much it hurt: Illinois was another strong team with lofty expectations heading into the season, and the Fighting Illini’s run to a Big Ten regular-season championship gave optimism that Brad Underwood’s club was peaking at the perfect moment. The Illini, on the other hand, looked wobbly in a one-point first-round victory over Chattanooga that they were fortunate to escape, and never really looked like the superior team in losing to Houston and missing the second weekend for the second time. The last time Illinois was even with the Cougars came on an Alfonso Plummer 3 that knotted the game at 40-40. The Cougars closed the game on a 14-4 run against an Illini team that shot 34% from the field.

Underwood said, “We didn’t film it very well.” “We did a decent job of playing, but we didn’t shoot the ball very effectively. When you look at our two games here, you’ll see that we shot the ball horribly.”


Michigan Wolverines (#33) (No. 11 seed, South)

How they lost: In the Sweet 16, No. 2 seed Villanova upset the Wolverines 63-55.

Peak chance of winning: 39.6% (at 3:59 of the first half, Michigan 22, Villanova 20)

How much pain did it cause: It was an odd season for Michigan, which saw the Wolverines start the season as a potential Final Four contender before falling into an unexpected rut, playing a key role in one of the season’s most heinous moments, and then scraping and clawing their way to an 11-seed ahead of an encouraging run to the second weekend. Is it possible that Juwan Howard’s team was at its finest when it mattered most? As it turned out, Michigan battled Villanova to the end, drawing within 54-50 on a pair of Terrance Williams II free throws with 3:19 left, but couldn’t hit enough huge shots against a seasoned Wildcats squad.

Howard remarked of the season, “There were moments when we were counted out.” “There were moments when people didn’t think we deserved to be in the NCAA tournament, but these players rose to the situation and demonstrated they deserved to be there.”


Miami Hurricanes (32nd) (No. 10 seed, Midwest)

How they lost: In the Elite Eight, No. 1 seed Kansas upset the Hurricanes 76-50.

53.4 percent of the time, you’ll win (Miami 35, Kansas 29, halftime)

How much pain did it cause: After being predicted 12th in the 15-team ACC in the preseason, the Hurricanes created school history in 2021-22, reaching the Elite Eight for the first time. By every objective metric, Jim Larranaga’s team had a fantastic season, but it didn’t make the finale any less heartbreaking. The Canes looked like the superior side for the opening 20 minutes against Kansas before being thrashed 47-15 in the second half. In the second half, Miami made only 6 of 28 field goals and was outrebounded 25-11. Miami forward Sam Waardenburg observed, “We began to play the score, not the game.”


Auburn Tigers (#31) (No. 2 seed, Midwest)

How they lost: They were seeded 10th. In the second round, Miami beat the Tigers 79-61.

83.4 percent of the time, you’ll win (Auburn 0, Miami 0, 20:00 mark of first half)

How much it hurt: Auburn won the SEC regular-season title, spent time at No. 1 this season and had a couple of probable first-round picks in Jabari Smith and Walker Kessler, so falling short of the second weekend definitely hurt. That said, these Tigers will probably be remembered as a group that started taking on water near the end, going a middling 6-5 in their final 11 games including losses to Florida and Texas A&M teams that didn’t make the NCAA tournament. Auburn looked like the better team at no point in the Miami game, trailing wire to wire and never getting Smith and Kessler (a combined 3-of-22 from the floor for 12 points) untracked against the Hurricanes’ guard-heavy attack.

Auburn coach Bruce Pearl stated afterward, “It’s the first time we’ve had it given to us.” “We were at a loss for words.”


Arkansas Razorbacks (#30) (No. 4 seed, West)

The Razorbacks were upset 78-69 by No. 2 seed Duke in the Elite Eight.

Peak chance of winning: 48.0 percent (Arkansas 9, Duke 6, 15:23 mark of first half)

How much pain did it cause: When the Razorbacks stopped tournament favorite Gonzaga’s quest for a championship in the Sweet 16, expectations skyrocketed. For the second year in a row, 40 minutes separated Arkansas from its first Final Four appearance since 1995, and for the second year in a row, Eric Musselman’s team rallied but fell short in its second tough game in three days. The Muss Bus came to an end with a 10-0 second-half outburst that extended the margin from 53-48 to 63-48. The Razorbacks, who led the SEC in defensive efficiency, couldn’t make enough stops against a Duke club that had five likely NBA draft choices, shooting 29 of 53 (54.7 percent) from the field. “Today we were beaten by a superior team,” Musselman stated. “Duke was fantastic, in my opinion. I’d be astonished if they aren’t competing for a national title.”


UCLA Bruins (29). (No. 4 seed, East)

The Bruins were upset 73-66 in the Sweet 16 by No. 8 seed North Carolina.

83.0% of the time, you’ll win (UCLA 56, North Carolina 51, 8:39 mark of second half)

The Bruins’ agony did not stem from the reality that this was not UCLA’s most skilled or consistent squad; the lucky-to-survive character of a first-round victory against Akron should have made that evident. A great deal of the pain came in the way the bracket set up for Mick Cronin’s group, which would have seen 15-seed Saint Peter’s next and looked to be in a reasonable amount of control over No. 8 seed North Carolina during various points in the matchup. Caleb Love took over with back-to-back 3s that knotted the game and then put the Tar Heels ahead to stay with a made basket by Tyger Campbell as the time crept below two minutes. Back-to-back Final Four appearances would be out of the question for a school currently looking for its 12th championship.

“My message to them is that you can’t allow others tell you that your season isn’t a success because you didn’t win it all this year,” Cronin said. “That is a ridiculous claim. Despite the fact that I came to UCLA to win my 12th championship, and I’m not leaving until I do.”


Providence Friars (#28) (No. 4 seed, Midwest)

The Friars were upset 66-61 in the Sweet 16 by No. 1 seed Kansas.

54.0 percent of the time, you’ll win. (At the 5:43 mark of the second half, Providence leads Kansas 48-47.)

How much it hurt: Providence defied the odds until the final days of the season, winning a Big East regular-season title it wasn’t supposed to win and then making it to the NCAA tournament’s second weekend for the first time since 1997, when the Friars were a popular upset pick in the first two rounds. When a made Noah Horchler layup highlighted a 25-11 run that left Providence up by a point as the clock approached the five-minute mark in the Sweet 16, it appeared like Ed Cooley’s tough-minded group’s fun could continue. But KU heated up from there, the Friars were scorched by several empty shots and Jayhawks rebounds, and Cooley’s team’s trek to Chicago came to an end.

Cooley added, “These youngsters — these guys — went through a lot of hardship.” “I will not allow our men’s heads to be bowed. This was an incredible season, and we were defeated by a fantastic squad.”


Peacocks of Saint Peter (No. 15 seed, East)

In the Elite Eight, No. 8 seed North Carolina upset the Peacocks 69-49.

(Saint Peter’s 0, North Carolina 0 at the 20:00 point of the first half) Peak victory probability: 18.2 percent

How much pain did it cause: It was one of the most incredible Cinderella stories in NCAA tournament history, as a resource-strapped MAAC team defeated two teams that no one would have predicted would be in the Final Four in 2022 — Kentucky and Purdue — as well as a strong Murray State squad to become the lowest seed ever to reach the Elite Eight. There were no moral wins for Shaheen Holloway’s squad — the Peacocks had every expectation of beating North Carolina and making it to New Orleans — but the disappointment had to be mitigated by the reality that UNC was obviously the superior club on this day. Saint Peter’s struggled to shoot the ball well (30 percent for the game) and couldn’t stop big men Armando Bacot and Brady Manek, who combined to hit 15 of 26 shots in a game the Heels dominated by double digits for the last 30 minutes. “We’re going to walk out of here the same way we went in — with our heads up,” said Holloway, who would accept the Seton Hall position a few days later.


Scarlet Knights of Rutgers, No. 26 (No. 11 seed, Midwest)

In the First Four, No. 11 seed Notre Dame upset the Scarlet Knights 89-87 (2OT).

81.9 percent of the time, you’ll win (Rutgers 79, Notre Dame 77, 0:10 mark of first overtime)

How much it hurt: It was a shot that may have gone down in Rutgers legend for all time. With 8.6 seconds remaining in the first overtime, Paul Mulcahy hit a 3-pointer from the left wing to put the Scarlet Knights up 79-77 over Notre Dame and put them one stop away from a first-round matchup with Alabama. However, Fighting Irish player Blake Wesley drove the lane for a basket to force a second overtime session, when a Paul Atkinson Jr. putback with 1.4 seconds remaining broke an 87-87 tie and halted the Scarlet Knights’ quest for back-to-back tournament victories. Going to Notre Dame just as Saint Patrick’s Day was getting underway on the East Coast may have looked appropriate to some, but it was cruel for Rutgers. Rutgers coach Steve Pikiell said, “They were one possession better.”


Notre Dame Fighting Irish (No. 25) (No. 11 seed, West)

They lost because they were seeded third. In the second round, Texas Tech beat the Fighting Irish 59-53.

67.5 percent of the time, you’ll win. (At the 2:36 mark of the second half, Notre Dame leads Texas Tech 51-49.)

How much it hurt: Another ACC matchup between Notre Dame and Duke seemed to be on the verge of happening in the second round, with the Fighting Irish leading by three points with under two minutes remaining and just needing to finish. The Red Raiders, on the other hand, just handled the endgame better, getting numerous crucial offensive rebounds and hitting all eight of their free throws in the last two minutes, while Notre Dame failed to convert a field goal in the final 3:11. Notre Dame missed out on a trip to the second weekend for the first time since 2016, however victories against Rutgers and Alabama in the tournament will be remembered fondly.

“Not just tonight, but beginning Wednesday night, we literally drained the tank,” coach Mike Brey remarked afterward. “And they emotionally depleted it in there. There were a lot of tears in the room. You look and go as a coach, but everyone was totally involved.”


Houston Cougars (#24) (No. 5 seed, South)

How they lost: In the Elite Eight, No. 2 seed Villanova upset the Cougars 50-44.

66.2 percent of the time, you’ll win (Houston 0, Villanova 0, 20:00 mark of first half)

How much it hurt: Despite their 5-seed status, the Cougars were a popular favorite among the analytics community to reach the 2022 Final Four, and nothing they accomplished in decisive victories over UAB, Illinois, and top-seeded Arizona disproved Kelvin Sampson’s team’s ability to make such a run. Then there was the Villanova game, when the Coogs lost a rock battle after shooting 16-of-37 from two (43.2 percent) and 1-of-20 from three (5 percent ). It was an accomplishment for Houston to get here at all despite losing important players Marcus Sasser and Tramon Mark to injury early in the season, not that a team that reached the Final Four last season cared.

“I’m upset we lost,” Sampson added, “but I’m not unhappy in anything else.” “Teams that weep are concerned. In that locker room, there were a lot of tears… I knew it would take a good squad to defeat us, and that’s exactly what we got.”


The Trojans of USC are ranked 23rd in the country (No. 7 seed, Midwest)

How they lost: They were seeded 10th. In the first round, Miami beat the Trojans 68-66.

Peak chance of winning: 68.3 percent (14:22 of the second half, USC 37, Miami 33)

How much it hurt: With three seconds left, Miami’s Charlie Moore broke a 66-all tie with a pair of free throws, and Drew Peterson’s buzzer heave hit the backboard and clanged off the front rim, denying the Trojans the opportunity to advance. The rulings and non-calls that went against the Trojans late in the game will most likely be remembered by USC fans, including an out-of-bounds rule that may have been made in mistake and a possible and-1 chance for Peterson on a layup with 14 seconds to go. “It’s obviously upsetting to lose like that in a one-possession game, but they rallied back and gave it their best try,” USC coach Andy Enfield said.


Colgate Raiders (#22) (No. 14 seed, Midwest)

They lost because they were seeded third. In the first round, Wisconsin beat the Raiders 67-60.

61.9 percent of the time, you’ll win (Colgate 52, Wisconsin 48, 10:40 mark of second half)

The Raiders faced one of the most difficult challenges of the first round, a battle with Wisconsin at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, which was practically a home game for the Badgers. The Patriot League champions, on the other hand, gave Wisconsin all they could handle, with Tucker Richardson (15 points on 5-of-10 shooting from beyond the arc) leading the 3-point attack in a game that seemed to have significant upset potential. But Johnny Davis and the Raiders eventually woke up, embarking on a 17-4 run in which Davis scored 12 points and transformed a 52-48 advantage into a 65-56 loss, thereby ending the Raiders’ season.

Colgate’s Matt Langel stated, “I don’t believe I’ve ever been in a better setting for college basketball than the one today.” “I know that doesn’t usually happen in NCAA tournament games, but just like last year when we were on the borderline and had an extremely unique experience, our players will remember this one for a long, long time, even if it doesn’t sit well with them right now.”


Davidson Wildcats (21st) (No. 10 seed, West)

They lost because they were seeded seventh. In the first round, Michigan State upset the Wildcats 74-73.

78.5 percent of the time, you’ll win. (At the 6:52 point of the second half, Davidson 56, Michigan State 51)

How much it hurt: The Atlantic 10 regular-season champions were on the verge of winning their first NCAA tournament game since the Steph Curry era when Michigan State began to play some of the finest offensive basketball we’d seen all season. Bob McKillop’s team could never quite bounce back even after a 10-0 MSU surge changed the Wildcats’ 56-51 advantage into a 61-56 deficit, and they eventually lost by one point. Davidson player Foster Loyer (12 points) was one of the heartbroken Wildcats, playing his old club after three years on the MSU roster.

McKillop remarked, “I’m sad for our soldiers.” “We battled our way into the thick of things. We were knocked down a few of times. We remained in the middle ring and continued to battle. We’ve just run out of time.”


Murray State Racers (20th) (No. 7 seed, East)

The Racers were upset 70-60 in the second round by No. 15 seed Saint Peter’s.

Peak win probability: 80.7 percent (Murray State 0; Saint Peter’s 0; 19:41 first-half mark)

How much pain did it cause: With a 21-game winning run and a 15-seed in Saint Peter’s, the Racers had to be excited about their prospects of moving on to the Sweet 16 after beating San Francisco in overtime in the first round. Murray State, on the other hand, fell short of reaching the Sweet 16 for the first time in school history. Matt McMahon’s team was outmuscled on the boards (38-31) and didn’t get enough from stars KJ Williams and Tevin Brown, but the Peacocks pulled up 23-21 on a pair of free throws at the 5:23 mark of the first half and led the rest of the way (a combined 7-of-26 shooting including 3-of-13 from 3). The defeat also signaled the end of an era for McMahon, who went on to become the head coach at LSU after the game.


Huskies of UConn, No. 19 (No. 5 seed, West)

In the first round, No. 12 seed New Mexico State upset the Huskies 70-63.

90.4 percent of the time, you’ll win (UConn 0, New Mexico State 0, 19:25 mark of first half)

How much it hurt: It was the moment at which all of the progress the UConn basketball program has made in four seasons under Dan Hurley — progress that has been undeniable — gave way to another question about when this program will take the next step back toward being a national contender. The 2022 tournament marked the second straight one-and-done showing at the hands of a worse seed — Maryland beat UConn in a 10 vs. 7 game last season — and the latest one was pulled off in somewhat methodical fashion by an NMSU team that led by 10 at halftime and never really blinked when UConn chipped away at the lead in the second half. Teddy Allen (37 points) ultimately proved unsolvable for Hurley & Co., who will undoubtedly be laser-focused on an NCAA tournament win in 2023. “It’s crushing to see your guys not be able to get the enjoyment of that next game and the buildup,” Hurley said. “It sucks.”


Memphis Tigers (#18) (No. 9 seed, West)

They lost because they were the number one seed. In the second round, Gonzaga beat the Tigers 82-78.

77.0 percent of the time, you’ll win (Memphis 43, Gonzaga 31, 19:21 mark of second half)

How much it hurt: Memphis entered the NCAA tournament for the first time under Penny Hardaway as one of the most fascinating teams in the bracket, a club that had rediscovered themselves late in the season and was good enough to make a run. After dominating Boise State in Game 1, the Tigers dominated the first half in Portland, setting the stage for an upset. After halftime, though, the Zags came alive, outscoring Memphis 30-14 in a 10-minute span to demonstrate why they were picked to win the NCAA tournament. The Tigers’ failure to shut down Drew Timme, who scored 21 of his 25 points in the second half, proved to be their downfall. It had to hurt a little to see Arkansas do the job and send Gonzaga out of the tournament days later after the near-miss that deprived Memphis its first trip to the second weekend since 2009.


Tennessee Volunteers, No. 17 (No. 3 seed, South)

How they lost: In the second round, No. 11 seed Michigan upset the Volunteers 76-68.

85.2 percent of the time, you’ll win (Tennessee 60, Michigan 54, 7:57 mark of second half)

How much it hurt: Tennessee guard Kennedy Chandler, a projected first-round NBA draft choice who was saddened to see the Vols fall short of the second weekend, was imprinted all over his face with the significance of the NCAA tournament and the anguish associated with losing in it. Chandler’s postgame hug with Michigan coach Juwan Howard went viral, encapsulating how the game ended for a Tennessee team that seemed to be in command just a half-hour before. After going up 60-54, Tennessee turned ice-cold, as Michigan’s Eli Brooks outscored UT 11-8 on his own, sending Rick Barnes’ team to an earlier departure than Chandler or anyone else imagined.

Tennessee’s Josiah-Jordan James stated, “We had higher hopes, but credit to Michigan — they played better basketball for 40 minutes.” “It is unquestionably painful. It’s not a pleasant feeling to be on the losing end right now.”


Creighton Bluejays (#16) (No. 9 seed, Midwest)

The Bluejays were upset 79-72 by No. 1 seed Kansas in the second round.

45.4 percent of the time, you’ll win (Kansas 73, Creighton 72, 1:20 mark of second half)

How much it hurt: Kansas will play for the national championship on Monday, but the Jayhawks were only a hair away from missing out on the second weekend. Creighton was down 73-72 with 1:20 to go when David McCormack missed a shot, giving the Bluejays a chance to send KU back to Lawrence provided they could manage the finale. The pressure was too much for Greg McDermott’s feisty team, which missed its last three shots and committed two turnovers to avoid the upset and a second consecutive trip to the second weekend for CU. Ryan Hawkins of Creighton commented, “I believe this bunch has a lot of fire in them.” “I couldn’t be more pleased with how we ended the season.”


Baylor Bears, No. 15 (No. 1 seed, East)

In the second round, No. 8 seed North Carolina upset the Bears 93-86 (OT).

Peak chance of winning: 88.3 percent (Baylor 4, North Carolina 0, 18:27 mark of first half)

When a Brady Manek 3 put the Tar Heels up 67-42 and seemed to send the Bears into hibernation halfway through the second half, the reigning national champions looked dead to rights. After Manek was removed for a questionable flagrant-2, Scott Drew’s team increased their defensive pressure, and Baylor went on an incredible run to tie the game at 80-80 and force overtime. The fact that the Bears ran out of gas in overtime was the only thing that stopped the game from being an all-timer, and you can bet that the fact that North Carolina has gone on to win three more games and will play for the national championship on Monday night will hurt a little more.


Texas Tech Red Raiders (14). (No. 3 seed, West)

The Red Raiders were upset 78-73 in the Sweet 16 by No. 2 seed Duke.

77.2 percent of the time, you’ll win. (At the 0:52 point of the first half, Texas Tech leads Duke 33 to 26.)

How much it hurt: As they traveled to San Francisco, the Red Raiders were a small favorite against Duke, a physically robust, defensive-minded squad that seemed to be a difficult battle for the Blue Devils. And for the first 20 minutes, Mark Adams’ team was clearly the better team, until the Blue Devils began to use their size with Mark Williams (16 points) and Paolo Banchero (22 points), point guard Jeremy Roach (15 points) made some big shots, and Duke ended up with 49 second-half points and a gritty victory that allowed Coach K to continue playing.

“I’m very glad that I was able to teach these guys and the rest of this squad,” Adams said after leading the club to 27 victories in his first season as head coach in Lubbock. “It’s really unique. I’m really unhappy that this season is coming to a close because we really want to keep… playing.”


Spartans of Michigan State (No. 7 seed, West)

The Spartans were upset 85-76 by No. 2 seed Duke in the second round.

74.9 percent of the time, you’ll win (Michigan State 70, Duke 65, 5:10 mark of second half)

How much it hurt: For a brief minute, it seemed like Coach K would succumb to another legend, and Tom Izzo would advance to the second weekend, with a chance to reach the Final Four once again. As the clock ticked inside 5 minutes, it appeared that the tournament would take a dramatic turn in Greenville, as MSU was coming off a fine performance to defeat Davidson, Duke was still the team that had suffered troubling recent losses to North Carolina and Virginia Tech, and as the clock ticked inside 5 minutes, it appeared that the tournament would take a dramatic turn in Greenville. But Duke awoke, and not for the last time in this tournament, to go on a 20-6 run that saw MSU’s shooting and turnover troubles resurface at precisely the worst moment. Izzo stated of his last game against Mike Krzyzewski, a familiar opponent, ” “This game may be remembered in a variety of ways. It won’t be as fun for me to recall it, but it will be respectful.”


Chattanooga Mocs (12) (No. 13 seed, South)

They lost because they were seeded fourth. In the first round, Illinois beat the Mocs 54-53.

82.5 percent of the time, you’ll win. (At the 17:26 mark of the second half, Chattanooga leads Illinois 40-29.)

How much it hurt: As far as heartbreaks go, this one was a screamer. The Southern Conference champion Mocs jumped out to a 20-6 lead, survived a couple of Illinois punches to create a double-digit second-half lead, then ceded the lead to Illinois in the last minute before losing when they missed a pair of game-winning field goals in the final seconds. The game would be the last game for Chattanooga before coach Lamont Paris accepted the position at South Carolina a few days later.


Horned Frogs of TCU (No. 9 seed, South)

They lost because they were the number one seed. In the second round, Arizona beat the Horned Frogs 85-80 (OT).

71.5 percent of the time, you’ll win (TCU 75, Arizona 72, 0:37 mark of second half)

TCU thrashed Seton Hall in the first round, but was unsatisfied with the program’s first NCAA tournament victory since 1987, and gave top-ranked Arizona all it had in a quest to advance to the second weekend. Jamie Dixon’s squad narrowed the distance and placed itself in position to win with a 17-5 run accentuated by an Eddie Lampkin (20 points, 14 rebounds) put-back at the 37-second mark as the clock ticked under seven minutes in regulation. However, a Bennedict Mathurin three-pointer forced overtime, and the Horned Frogs were unable to hit enough baskets in overtime to take the program to its deepest run since 1968.

“This season has been everything for us,” said forward Chuck O’Bannon Jr., “since we weren’t even supposed to be here.” “And the fact that we won our first game and were so close to the No. 1 spot simply shows that we have a group of men that are really tenacious.”


The Akron Zips are ranked tenth in the league (No. 13 seed, East)

The Zips were upset 57-53 by No. 4 seed UCLA in the first round.

83.9 percent of the time, you’ll win (Akron 49, UCLA 42, 5:31 mark of second half)

How much pain did it cause: For the first time since guiding Illinois to the NCAA tournament in 2013, John Groce was back on the stage, and his team seemed bent on staying a while as they dominated UCLA for the opening 35 minutes. The Zips’ inability to complete the task was due to two factors: they failed to hit a shot in the last five minutes, scoring just four points, and they handed the Bruins far too many second-chance chances to keep their hopes alive. All of this added up to a difficult departure for the MAC champions. Groce said, “I believed we had a chance to win it.” “I think it deserved to win in certain ways and characteristics. However, this isn’t always the case.”


Arizona Wildcats, No. 9 (No. 1 seed, South)

They lost because they were seeded fifth. In the Sweet 16, Houston beat the Wildcats 72-60.

41.7 percent of the time, you’ll win (Arizona 0, Houston 0, 20:00 mark of first half)

How much it hurt: The seeds for this one seemed to have been laid in the previous game, in which the Wildcats dominated on the boards against TCU but still managed to win in overtime. Because Houston was a superior rebounding and defensive team than TCU, it didn’t auger well for Arizona, and many of the predictions about how tough the game would be came true. Although Tommy Lloyd’s team outrebounded Houston, the University of Arizona never looked comfortable offensively, shooting 18-of-54 (33.3 percent) from the field. The Wildcats came within 42-40 on a Dalen Terry 3-pointer at the 13:33 mark of the second half, but never got closer, capping off an otherwise promising first year in Tucson for Lloyd.

“I believe we put in some core components this year that will serve us well moving ahead,” Lloyd said. “I’m really proud of the men. The coaching staff has a lot to be proud of. Tonight, we faced a really talented squad that proved to be a little too much for us.”


Villanova Wildcats, No. 8 (No. 2 seed, South)

The Wildcats were upset 81-65 in the Final Four by No. 1 seed Kansas.

Peak chance of winning: 49.6% (Villanova 0, Kansas 0, 20:00 mark of second half)

How much it hurt: One of the great mysteries of Final Four week was how Villanova would fare without injured guard Justin Moore, with most observers thinking that the Wildcats would be hard-pressed to upset a rising 1-seed at half-capacity. And those assessments proved correct, as KU jumped out to a large lead early in a wire-to-wire victory in which the Jayhawks were never really threatened. Nova struggled on both ends of the floor, shooting 38.6 percent in a game with one less offensive option and enabling Kansas to hit 13 of 24 3s (54.2 percent) from beyond the arc. At the 6:10 mark of the second half, Jay Wright’s squad had the best chance of making it a game, when a Jermaine Samuels 3-point shot capped a 24-14 run that cut a 16-point lead to six, at 64-58. However, the Cats would fall short of delivering Wright his third national title due to too many empty trips and insufficient stops the rest of the way.


Wisconsin Badgers, No. 7 (No. 3 seed, Midwest)

The Badgers were upset 54-49 by No. 11 seed Iowa State in the second round.

72.1 percent of the time, you’ll win (Wisconsin 22, Iowa State 17, 4:59 mark of first half)

How much it hurt: The Badgers’ schedule couldn’t have been much better, with two games against double-digit seeds in front of a raucous partisan crowd in Milwaukee’s Fiserv Forum, but they fell short of reaching the second weekend for the first time since 2017. After defeating Colgate in the first round with a late flurry, Greg Gard’s team struggled against ISU, shooting a dismal 14-of-47 (30.8 percent) from the field, including 2-of-22 from 3-point range (9.1 percent ). All-American Johnny Davis scored 17 points in what was likely his last game at Wisconsin, but he went 4-of-16 from the field, including 0-for-7 from three. Wisconsin would have faced Miami, another double-digit seed, in a regional semifinal in Chicago if they had won.

The Cyclones “played a pretty strong pressure defense,” Davis said. “They did an excellent job of eliminating passing lanes. We simply missed shots and didn’t distribute the ball the way we were meant to, in my opinion.”


San Diego State Aztecs, No. 6 (No. 8 seed, Midwest)

The Aztecs were upset 72-69 (OT) by No. 9 seed Creighton in the first round.

95.6 percent of the time, you’ll win (San Diego State 62, Creighton 53, 3:19 mark of second half)

How much pain did it cause: Although nine-point leads with under three minutes to play are not insurmountable, no team is more likely to squander such a lead than San Diego State. The Aztecs were second in the country in defensive efficiency this season, behind only Texas Tech, but they let the Bluejays go on a 9-0 run to finish regulation and couldn’t put them away in OT. San Diego State will most likely win if it can hit a shot — any shot — in the last three minutes of regulation, but Brian Dutcher’s team came up empty on the field, at the line, and turned the ball over often to keep the door open. “It’s March’s anguish and joy,” Dutcher said. “I believed we competed well and placed ourselves in a good position to win. Creighton, to their credit, came back to win the game.”


Gonzaga Bulldogs, No. 5 (No. 1 seed, West)

The Bulldogs were upset 74-68 in the Sweet 16 by No. 4 seed Arkansas.

91.6 percent of the time, you’ll win. (At the 18:39 point of the first half, Gonzaga 5, Arkansas 0)

How much pain did it cause: Gonzaga remained the overwhelming favorite to win the NCAA tournament headed into the Sweet 16 despite a less-than-complete win over Georgia State in the first round and a comeback victory over Memphis in the second. The Zags were 28-3, with Drew Timme as an All-American and Chet Holmgren as a possible No. 1 overall choice, and it seemed like their year to many. Eric Musselman and Arkansas wore down the Zags defensively in one of their worst offensive performances of the season, and the Muss Bus couldn’t care less. Holmgren’s foul problems and a poor shooting night from outside the arc (5 of 21, 23.8 percent) contributed to the 1-seed’s elimination. “Arkansas deserves all of the accolades,” Gonzaga coach Mark Few said. “It was difficult to get into a rhythm against their defense. That, to me, was the game’s deciding factor.”


4. Hawkeyes of Iowa (No. 5 seed, Midwest)

The Hawkeyes were upset 67-63 by No. 12 seed Richmond in the first round.

82.1 percent of the time, you’ll win. (At 16:23 of the second half, Iowa 39, Richmond 34)

How much it hurt: Iowa supporters who haven’t seen the Hawkeyes make it to the second weekend since 1999 are never overconfident about their team’s prospects in the NCAA tournament, but they had to be a little more optimistic than normal heading into a first-round game against Richmond. After all, when the tournament started, this squad had been playing some of the finest basketball in the nation, including a dramatic run to the Big Ten tournament title, led by an All-American and future lottery choice in Keegan Murray. Perhaps, just perhaps…

Richmond, on the other hand, was another conference tournament champion seeking to keep the party going, and it rode Jacob Gilyard’s (24 points, 6 assists) and an uncommonly bad Hawkeyes offense (including 6-of-29 from three) to a classic 12-over-5 upset. Iowa guard Connor McCaffery stated afterward, “This game is arguably the worst game we’ve played all year, and I don’t think it’s close, so it’s certainly not a pleasant feeling in our stomachs right now.”


Purdue Boilermakers, No. 3 (No. 3 seed, East)

In the Sweet 16, No. 15 seed Saint Peter’s upset the Boilermakers 67-64.

Purdue 7, Saint Peter’s 2 (17:52 point of first half): 93.7 percent chance of winning.

How much pain did it cause: Get to the Elite Eight by defeating a 15-seed. That was the equation for a Purdue squad that was undeniably talented and had been ranked No. 1 in the NCAA earlier this season. If the Boilermakers had defeated Saint Peter’s, they would have faced 8-seed North Carolina, a team Matt Painter’s squad had previously defeated in November, with the school’s first Final Four appearance since 1980 on the horizon. Of course, UNC is still in the game. The grief will remain for Purdue and its long-suffering supporters.

With a 56-52 advantage with the ball with two opportunities to extend it near the 4-minute mark, it seemed like the Boilermakers would pull through. Purdue, on the other hand, came up empty on the trip, Peacocks star Doug Edert was fouled on a three at the opposite end (and converted all three free throws, naturally), and Saint Peter’s was able to stay in the game. Purdue would eventually lose the game at the other team’s free throw line, as the Peacocks made history by sinking all eight of their free throws in the last two minutes to advance to the Elite Eight.

Trevion Williams of the Boilermakers remarked, “We spoke about treating them like the greatest team in the nation.” “I don’t think everyone believed it.”


Kentucky Wildcats, No. 2 (No. 2 seed, East)

The Wildcats were upset 85-79 (OT) by No. 15 seed Saint Peter’s in the first round.

95.7 percent chance of winning (Kentucky 5, Saint Peter’s 2) at 15:54 in the first half.

How much it hurt: Opinions varied on whether this version of the Kentucky Wildcats had the goods to get the program to its first Final Four since 2015. Opinions did not vary on whether Saint Peter’s could be the team to end UK’s season — few gave the notion much thought. When the clock ticked under 3 minutes in regulation and Kentucky held a 68-62 lead, it looked like John Calipari & Co. would survive. When they blew that lead and opened the door for the Peacocks to force overtime, the prevailing thought was still that the Wildcats would survive. They didn’t, missing shots, turning the ball over and ultimately wearing one of the tournament’s shocking losses. That Saint Peter’s would win two more games and prove the first-round result was not a fluke did not really amount to a silver lining for an angry Big Blue Nation. The team that won the East Region is an 8-seed that Kentucky beat by 29 points in December and can win a national championship Monday night.

The loss has ushered in what is expected to be a lengthy summer in Lexington, where Calipari’s popularity rating is unlikely to rise anytime soon and every personnel move will be scrutinized with unusual zeal. Kentucky has had its share of embarrassing moments under Calipari, but this one will be remembered for a long time.


Duke Blue Devils, No. 1 (No. 2 seed, West)

The Blue Devils were upset in the Final Four by No. 8 seed North Carolina, 81-77.

81.4 percent of the time, you’ll win. (At the 18:39 point of the second half, Duke 41, North Carolina 34)

How much pain did it cause: It couldn’t possibly be much more terrible, and the stakes for Duke couldn’t be any higher. A chance to extend its season, and coach Mike Krzyzewski’s illustrious Hall of Fame career, against a hated rival that ruined Mike Krzyzewski’s final game at Cameron Indoor Stadium less than a month ago, in the first NCAA tournament meeting between the two teams, in a game Duke was favored to win, on the Final Four stage. Add in the fact that the game was a tense back-and-forth in the waning seconds until North Carolina took control with two Caleb Love free throws with eight seconds remaining. Every NCAA tournament defeat brings a sense of closure, but this one offered epic closure on a magnitude that will be tough to duplicate in future tournaments.

The “ncaa pain index” is a ranking of the most painful NCAA tournament games. The pain index is based on factors such as seed, opponent’s record, and location.

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